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Ten Great Ideas About Chance | July 2025

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Ten Great Ideas About Chance

Persi Diaconis and Brian Skyrms


30 Jun 2025 to 01 Aug 2025
About the Book

This exploration of probability blends mathematics, philosophy, and psychology as it examines ten fundamental ideas that have shaped our understanding of chance. Diaconis and Skyrms take us on a journey from the basic concepts of measurement to the profound implications of induction, offering insights into how we interpret randomness and uncertainty in our world.

Each chapter in this book reveals a key idea about chance, building a comprehensive picture of probability theory and its applications across disciplines. The book presents technical concepts in an approachable way, making it accessible to readers with various backgrounds.

You can find this book on Amazon.

Prerequisites

A basic familiarity with probability theory and statistics will be helpful, though the discussions will be largely self-contained and accessible.

Timings and Venue

We meet on Zoom at 9PM IST for about 60-90 minutes each weekday according to the schedule below. Note that we’ll have a break during the week of July 21st.

Each chapter is explored over two sessions, allowing for deeper discussion and understanding.

Here’s a link to a WA group for general discussions and meetup reminders. Click here to join on Zoom or use the details below:

Meeting ID: 966 3518 2073
Passcode: chance

See you there!

Date Lecture Slides Notes Video
21 Jul, 2025 Measurement (Part 1)
Introduction to foundational concepts of measurement in probability
22 Jul, 2025 Measurement (Part 2)
Further exploration of measurement in probability theory
23 Jul, 2025 Judgment (Part 1)
Examining probability as degree of belief
24 Jul, 2025 Judgment (Part 2)
Continuing the exploration of subjective probability
25 Jul, 2025 Psychology (Part 1)
The psychology of probabilistic reasoning
28 Jul, 2025 Psychology (Part 2)
Psychological heuristics and biases in probability judgment
29 Jul, 2025 Frequency (Part 1)
Understanding probability through frequency interpretations
30 Jul, 2025 Frequency (Part 2)
Applications of frequency-based probability
31 Jul, 2025 Mathematics (Part 1)
Mathematical foundations of probability theory
01 Aug, 2025 Mathematics (Part 2)
Advanced mathematical concepts in probability
04 Aug, 2025 Inverse Inference (Part 1)
Introduction to Bayesian reasoning
05 Aug, 2025 Inverse Inference (Part 2)
Applications of Bayesian inference
06 Aug, 2025 Unification (Part 1)
Unifying different interpretations of probability
07 Aug, 2025 Unification (Part 2)
Synthesis of probability concepts across disciplines
08 Aug, 2025 Algorithmic Randomness (Part 1)
Computational perspectives on randomness
11 Aug, 2025 Algorithmic Randomness (Part 2)
Algorithmic complexity and randomness measures
12 Aug, 2025 Physical Chance (Part 1)
Probability in physical systems
13 Aug, 2025 Physical Chance (Part 2)
Quantum probability and indeterminism
14 Aug, 2025 Induction (Part 1)
Inductive reasoning and probability
15 Aug, 2025 Induction (Part 2)
Philosophical implications of probabilistic induction
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